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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Shorting SHLD - Sears Holding

Eddie Lampert is a smart guy for sure, but like many finance people I am sure his ego is as high as the Burj Dubai. His biggest holding that he uses as a bank is trading at lofty 59-60 times 2010 "expected" earnings. We surely know that "expectations" will not happen. The market expected $77 for 2009 and we came in with a whopping $56. Similarly the market expects $76 for 2010 and that, too, will not happen. Lampert is known to have shorted his competitors stock in the past through Sears to hedge Sears' finances. Which can be brilliant and shows a complete lack of a good management at a major retail company. With that kind of volatility, this company surely deserves a much lower P/E ratio. On top of personal negatives like that, we have the whole retail bubble issue. Consumer is dead and hence is retail. There are so many shortable stocks in this whole area and Sears is surely one of them at close to the highs before the crash down to where it belonged around March of 2009.

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