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Sunday, February 28, 2010

Ron Paul On Federal Reserve Audit and Goldman Sachs

Spitzer On The Fed: It Is A Ponzi Scheme

Here is a great talk.

Bernanke On The Economy 2005-2007

Here is a video of Bernanke comments on the economy. Great prophet we have up there!!!?? Makes you feel very safe and secure about the future???!!!!

Sprott Physical Gold ETF Starts Trading On NYSE

Sprott Asset Managements physical gold backed ETF starts trading in NYSE and is in line to start trading in Toronto. If you are absolutely unable to buy physical gold yourself, buying PHYS is better than buying GLD. People like David Einhorn dumped GLD to buy physical gold instead. I have personally met some of the GLD and Comex people and am convinced there is something very wrong there. Some would even say they are frauds possibly. I would highly recommend you not to get involved with GLD. PHYS is definitely a better medium.

Here is the GATA.org article:

"

Sprott Physical Gold Trust begins trading on NYSE

 Section: 
10:48a ET Sunday, February 28, 2010
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Ron Rowland, executive editor of the Invest with an Edge market letter, reports that Sprott Asset Management's new physical gold fund, the Sprott Physical Gold Trust, began trading Friday on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol PHYS and that a listing in Toronto is pending. Shares are redeemable for gold bars and the trust's metal will be stored at the Royal Canadian Mint. Rowland's report is headlined "PHYS: Now You Can Store Your Gold in Canada" and you can find it at Invest with an Edge here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
"

Central Bank Of South Korea: Dollar To Lose Edge As Reserve Currency

Not many words needed for this. This is happening faster than a lot of people happening. It is not an if, but when situation. The only way to change this would have been to go back to decent monetary policies and shutting the Fed down and covering the dollar short of the Fed which I am calculating to be around 35,000 metric tones at this point. Other experts put it closer to 50,000 metric tones. To give you a benchmark, the total gold ever mined in the history of the world is around 160,000 tones. This is a very explosive situation for gold. Gold at $50,000 at today's purchasing power is not as crazy as it sound if you realize the grimness of the situation and have a vision. 


"

S.Korea BOK report: dlr status may fade over time

SEOUL, Feb 28 - The U.S. dollar will likely remain the world's leading reserve currency for the next five to 10 years but may lose its edge over a longer period, a South Korean central bank report published on Sunday said.
The world could see multiple reserve currencies sharing the leading status 20 to 30 years from now, due to weakening confidence towards the dollar and the rising influence of other currencies such as the euro and yuan, it said.
"The global monetary order is expected to enter into a multi-currency system with currencies such as the dollar, euro and yuan competing each other to become the leading reserve currency," the Bank of Korea report said.
It said the weight of dollar assets in global foreign reserves had already fallen to 61.6 percent by the end of September 2009 from more than 80 percent in 1977, whereas the euro's has risen to 27.7 percent from 17.9 percent in 1999.
It is rare for the Bank of Korea, which manages the world's sixth-biggest foreign reserves, to publish a report commenting on such a sensitive topic, although the authors said the paper did not necessarily represent the central bank's stance.
There has been a heated debate around the world over whether the dollar deserves its current edge as the world's leading reserve currency even after a financial meltdown in the United States sparked a global crisis.
But a Reuters survey published in November last year also showed foreign exchange strategists expected the dollar's edge as the world's leading reserve currency would be chipped away only slowly. [ID:nL4118682]
The report suggested South Korea prepare itself for the changing global monetary order by boosting the use of other currencies in foreign trade and bolstering transactions of non-dollar currencies in the local market.
"

Ron Paul Wins Presidential Straw Poll

Let's hope he becomes the next president and ends the Fed and all this corruption of the Fed and Banks - especially Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan.
The following is from the Huffington Post.
"

CPAC 2010 Straw Poll RESULTS: Ron Paul Wins Big

First Posted: 02-20-10 05:40 PM   |   Updated: 02-20-10 06:00 PM
In a strong reflection of just how strong his standing remains within the die-hard conservative community, Texas Republican and 2008 presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul won the Conservative Political Action Conference straw poll on Saturday, earning nearly one-third (31 percent) of the entire vote. The crowd, however, booed heavily when the results were announced.
Paul was far and away the most widely anticipated speaker at the three-day conference, with his base of "Paulites" streaming into the main auditorium to hear him rail against government overreach and neoconservativism on Friday afternoon. In many respects, his win in the CPAC poll seemed pre-ordained -- his band of followers having a well-earned reputation for flooding polls and forums like these.
What it portends for a possible 2012 presidential run is anyone's guess. Paul had a similar cult-like following during the 2008 election, only to garner a relatively small chunk of the actual vote.
The other potential candidates who scored well and are more "mainstream" picks for the Republican nomination include former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who earned 22 percent of the vote, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin who came in third with seven percent. Romney had won the last three CPAC polls. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, another talked about 2012 aspirant, tied "undecided" for fourth place at six percent.
The results provide an interesting reflection as to where conservative hearts lie nearly three years before the next presidential elections take place. But with so much time before formal campaigning begins - and with no White House aspirant even officially announcing a bid- its best to resist the temptation to read too deeply into the numbers. For example, last year, disgraced South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford polled at four percent, while Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal -- no longer even on the straw poll -- came in second at 14 percent.
Nevertheless, the CPAC poll can provide a nice boost (or, at the very least, attention) to prospective candidates. In 2007, Romney etched out a win over former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani by a margin of 21 percent to 17 percent. Sen. John McCain, who wound up winning the nomination, came in fifth with 12 percent of the vote.
Several of the candidates polled attended CPAC in the days, and even hours, ahead of the results being released. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was a keynote speaker on Saturday, preceded by former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (Penn.). Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty spoke on Friday followed by Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and Paul. Romney addressed the audience on Thursday. All others were not in attendance during the three-day affair.
Story continues below 
Here are the official results:
Texas Rep. Ron Paul - 31 percent
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- 22 percent
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- 7 percent
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty - 6 percent
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich - 4 percent
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 4 percent
Indiana Rep. Mike Pence - 5 percent
South Dakota Sen. John Thune -- 2 percent
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels -- 2 percent
Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum -- 2 percent
Mississippi Gov. Hailey Barbour - 1 percent
Other - 5 percent
Undecided - 6 percent
"

Comex Changes Settlement of Gold and Silver Futures

Have not looked into the details of this yet, but I'm sure there is something behind it to help the short-sellers of gold and silver that are few numbers and huge in size both in terms of firm/institution size and even bigger in position size. By position size I mean at times bigger than the market cap of the firms. Here is the WSJ article. This was brought to our attention by the great work of GATA.org.

"

From Dow Jones Newswires
via The Wall Street Journal
Monday, February 22, 2010
NEW YORK -- CME Group Inc. will switch the procedure for settling Comex gold and silver futures to a method based on average price and volume rather than a specific price point, the exchange said Monday.
As of Friday, staff will settle the most-actively traded month of each contract at the volume-weighted average price -- which skews toward more heavily traded lots -- of outright trades on the CME Globex electronic trading platform. This is a change from the current method of settlement, where the lead contract month for gold and silver are settled to the midpoint of Globex trades during the settlement time range.
The settlement time periods are 1:29 p.m. ET-1:30 p.m. for gold and 1:24 p.m.-1:25 p.m. for silver.
If there are no outright trades during the settlement periods, the settlement price will be the best bid or offer in the expiring contract at the close of the market that is closest to the last traded price.
If there is no bid or offer in the expiring contract at that time, the settlement price will be implied from the bid/offer in the active spread at the close of the market, at the price that is closest to the last outright trade price in the expiring contract.
Contract months other than the active month will be settled by staff in conjunction with market participants based on spread relationships on CME Globex and the trading floor.
The greatest weight will be given to spreads traded in larger volumes later in the trading day, either on the trading floor or on CME Globex. In the absence of trading activity, spread bids/offers actively represented either on the floor or Globex will determine the settlements.
If there is insufficient activity to make the calculations, staff may rely on earlier data or other available market information to determine an appropriate settlement price.
If staff determine that anomalous activity yields results that are not representative of the fair value of the contract, staff may determine an alternative settlement price.
The changes will likely have little, if any impact on the market.
"It certainly doesn't seem like any big shake for speculators or users of the market," although it may have some bearing for commercial or other participants who take delivery of the metals, said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading. Most participants do not take delivery from futures contracts. Rather they tend to roll positions they want to hold into farther forward contracts.
"

Friday, February 26, 2010

Dominoes

Follow the dominoes and the smoke and mirrors economy and stock market and credit market bubbles.

Existing home sales are down 7.2% according to the National Association of Realtors, who obviously are biased to hoping for the positive.

Housing recovery: KEEP DREAMING

Banking/Financial recovery: KEEP DREAMING

Consumer recovery: KEEP DREAMING

Economic recovery: KEEP DREAMING

Continued sustainable gains in stock and credit markets: DON'T EVEN DREAM ABOUT IT AND RUN FOR COVER!!!.  

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Here You Go: China To Buy IMF Gold

Of course, no news about this in the US mainstream media.

"

China To Purchase Half of IMF's Gold


25.02.2010Source: Pravda.Ru
China has confirmed the intention to purchase 191.3 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund at an open auction, Finmarket news agency said.
World central banks started to increase their gold reserves after prices on gold began to climb in 2001. The IMF sells gold within the scope of a program to diversify sources of income and achieve an increase in lending.
The IMF announced an intention to sell 403.3 tons of gold in accordance with the adequate decision made by the board of directors of the fund in September of 2009. India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka purchased about 212 tons of the amount at the end of 2009. India purchased most – 200 tons.
China’s interest in international trade is connected with the development of the nation’s economy, as well as with the growing consumer demand in the country.
“Chinese officials have confirmed previous announcements from IMF experts and said that the purchasing of 191 tons of gold would not exert negative influence on the world market. China is interested in the development of the domestic consumer market,” the agency reports.
Most of Chinese citizens believe that investing in gold jewelry is a good way to avoid inflationRough & Polished agency said.
The IMF has received the profit of $7.2 billion from gold sales. A part of the funds is to be used for crediting poor countries.
"

Markets Being "Lifted" Via Futures

Markets are defying terrible global and domestic macro news once again. Besides complacency one thing catches the eye: Futures trading seems to be the reason the markets made a big gappy move up recently. This is very disturbing and lies close to the heart of the reason Ron Paul wants to audit the Fed and then shut it. Let them enjoy it while they can. This is a very unsustainable action and situation and fundamentals are getting much worse and games like this always end in disaster. There is a big bubble in equities - especially in banks and some commodity names such as CLF. We have seen how the bubble in 2007 ended. Enjoy the ride.

Gold Shining As The Alternative Asset

Gold is shining today as the alternative asset it is to the bubbles we are experiencing in the stock and credit markets. This is despite all the efforts to manipulate the price down. The safety of gold is unmatchable and history is the biggest evidence for this. Gold is majorly undervalued and is the ultimate asset and money.

Bubble Stock Behavior: CLF Is A Poster Child Today

Today we have a great example of a bubble stock behavior in CLF. Main indexes are down 1.5% and this stock after being down 3%+ is actually up slightly despite the market not improving in a meaningful way. There are no company specific news to support this move. There is no sector specific news either. Rest of related stocks are all down. Economy is terrible. The news today were horrendous. As a cyclical stock, this stock should be down 10%.

So, this here is pure bubble behavior and as the stock went from $115 to $15 last year, it will go from the current $55 level in a very meaningful way (50%+). Best way to play this is via puts.

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Bernanke: Zero Rates Are "NEEDED"

Tis is not good news folks. Market reaction is totally irrational and will lead to disaster as it did in 2007. We are living through the same bubble mechanics. People celebrating zero rates because they read in some trading book that when rates go lower stocks rise. Everything is not that simple and nothing especially castles in the sky do not last forever. Bernanke is saying economy is bad and we need to keep the rate low. That is bad news, one which the markets should have tanked on. The market is acting like a headless chicken running around. And the biggest concern of Bernanke is that the banks have tens of billions they need to roll over the next two years. And if they cannot do these rolls at low rates, it will become apparent that they are insolvent. Bernanke wants to avoid this. Why else is the treasury renewing its SFA program??? I thought banks were making billions, no??? Or was it all a matter of lies and illusions as has been the case with the banks and the Fed for a while now.

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Banks Are Insolvent And Fed And Treasury Are Trying To Hide This

Similar to the failure of Fannie and Freddie, this, too, eventually will end in failure. If the Fed actually gets audited there will even be a lot of people sent to jail for frauding the American people.

Jesse put this really well. I don't need to add much more to it.

"

23 FEBRUARY 2010

Treasury to Resume the Monetization of the Fed's Balance Sheet to Support the Wall Street Banks


This Treasury Supplemental Financing Program is designed to provide public funds for the Fed's efforts to purchase and then liquidate toxic assets and derivatives from the financial sector, effectively absorbing their losses and monetizing them.

The Treasury creates new notes and sells them on the open market. The money obtained in these sales is deposited at an account at the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve uses this money to purchase toxic assets from the banks at its own discretion and pricing, subject to little oversight and market discipline.

Senator Chris Dodd said "the Fed could become an 'effective Resolution Trust Corporation,' purchasing and ultimately disposing of depreciated assets.

It looks very much like a stealth bailout. It is even more of a scandal because of the Fed's resistance to any disclosures on the principles and specifics by which they are allocating taxpayer money.

Where this gets even more interesting is that the Fed in turn is buying Treasury debt after issuance through its primary dealers, debt that was issued by the Treasury to provide funds to the Fed.

Even more than a stealth bailout, this is starting to smell like 'a money machine.' Money machines are what Bernanke euphemistically called 'a printing press.' What is odious about this particular printing press is that the output is being given directly to a few big banks by a private organization which they own.

I believe that it is still illegal, by the letter of the statutes, for the Fed to directly purchase Treasury paper. But in this case, the Fed is buying Treasury paper with money supplied by the Treasury. Since the paper is passing through the marketplace, and the Primary Dealers are taking their commissions, it may be in conformance with the letter of the law. But it looks like it violates the spirit of the law.

And given that in many cases the Primary Dealers are the principal beneficiaries of the subsidy programs, selling their toxic debt to the Fed at non-market prices, this starts to appear like a right proper daisy chain of self-dealing and fraud.

As you can see from the background information below, this is a 'temporary' program from 2008 that the Treasury keeps promising to 'wind down.'

This is not a resolution trust by any measure. One only has to compare what happened with the Savings and Loan Resolution Trust, with the orderly liquidation of assets, losses assumed by the individual banks and their management, and investigations and prosecutions for fraud.

And the bankers involved in the Savings and Loan bubble and collapse were not still in business and giving themselves record bonuses within twelve months of their collapse, and engaging in the same frauds and speculation that led to the crisis.

Further, the Savings and Loan bankers were not flooding the Congress with lobbying money to hinder reform of the banking system, and to shift the focus of Congressional discussion to the reduction of legitimate programs like Social Security to finance the public subsidies being given to the very banks responsible for the financial crisis in the first place.

As a possibly related aside, today's US Treasury 2 year auction was unusual. Indirect Bidders took 100% of the offering as noted byZeroHedge.

MarketWatch
Treasury to expand Supplementary Financing program
By Greg RobbFeb. 23, 2010, 12:01 p.m. EST

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury Department announced Tuesday that it is expanding its Supplementary Financing Program to help the Federal Reserve manage its enormous balance sheet. In a statement, Treasury said it will boost the SFA to $200 billion from its current level of $5 billion. The fund had been up to $200 billion but was scaled back when Congress delayed passage of an increase in the debt limit.

Now that an expansion of the debt limit has been signed into law, the department is able to resume the program. Starting on Wednesday,Treasury will conduct the first of eight weekly $25 billion 56-day SFP bills to restore the program. The department said it will then roll the bills over. "We are committed to work with the Fed to ensure they have the flexibility to manage their balance sheet," a Treasury official said.

September 17, 2008
HP-1144
Treasury Announces Supplementary Financing Program

Washington- The Federal Reserve has announced a series of lending and liquidity initiatives during the past several quarters intended to address heightened liquidity pressures in the financial market, including enhancing its liquidity facilities this week. To manage the balance sheet impact of these efforts, the Federal Reserve has taken a number of actions, including redeeming and selling securities from the System Open Market Account portfolio.

The Treasury Department announced today the initiation of a temporary Supplementary Financing Program at the request of the Federal Reserve. The program will consist of a series of Treasury bills, apart from Treasury's current borrowing program, which will provide cash for use in the Federal Reserve initiatives.

Calculated Risk
Treasury to Unwind Supplementary Financing Program11/17/2008

One of the credit indicators I was tracking was the activity in the Treasury's Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). This was the Treasury program to raise cash for the Fed's liquidity initiatives.

Once the Fed started paying interest on reserves, the supplemental financing program wasn't needed any more to sterilize the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. The Treasury announced today that the program will be unwound...

As it should be obvious, these guys cannot give up the needle on their own.

Consumer Confidence Tanks

In not so surprising news consumer confidence tanked at 46 versus 56.5 from last month. Not that I believe that they ever do these surveys in the right regions, but this is not surprising at all. I guess this time they did not go to the Wall Street heavy neighborhoods to check if people were feeling fine. Unemployment is high and rising. People's buying powers and living standards are falling. Stock market rise only helps very few people who do not really need the extra income anyways. So the "recovery" that people have been talking about which refers mostly to the stock market is meaningless. GDP rising from horrendous levels is meaningless as well as long as it is not widespread among the people of the country. GDP percentage increase is a silly metric to put too much importance to and to follow by elected governments that are supposed to be serving the people of this country. They should target living standards and take out the outliers while evaluating the average. Markets of course should tank on the new "realization" that this 70% consumer economy is not doing well at all. On the contrary it is doing worse each passing day.

Goldman Was And Is Bankrupt

Here is for those who did not believe me when I said Goldman was bankrupt and AIG was to cover that up. Guess what, they are still bankrupt and besides being bankrupt, their accounting resembles that of Enron. You can not have $110 billion in assets backing $35 trillion in derivatives notional (and don't get me started on the delta on that) and hedge a lot of CDOs and MBSs with treasuries to give one example and not be bankrupt. I am not even going to talk about mark to model or mark to comparables. Their hedging of CDOs and MBSs with treasuries gives you an idea of what they think are comparables. A lot of people from Goldman, Geithner, Paulson, and Bernanke belong in jail.

Here is the Bloomberg article:

"
Secret AIG Document Shows Goldman Sachs Minted Most Toxic CDOs


By Richard Teitelbaum



Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- When acongressional panel convened a hearing on the government rescue of American International Group Inc. in January, the public scolding of Treasury SecretaryTimothy F. Geithner got the most attention.
Lawmakers said the former head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank had presided over a backdoor bailout of Wall Street firms and a coverup. Geithner countered that he had acted properly to avert the collapse of the financial system.
A potentially more important development slipped by with less notice, Bloomberg Markets reports in its April issue. Representative Darrell Issa, the ranking Republican on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, placed into the hearing record a five-page document itemizing the mortgage securities on which banks such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA had bought $62.1 billion in credit-default swaps from AIG.
These were the deals that pushed the insurer to the brink of insolvency -- and were eventually paid in full at taxpayer expense. The New York Fed, which secretly engineered the bailout, prevented the full publication of the document for more than a year, even when AIG wanted it released.
That lack of disclosure shows how the government has obstructed a proper accounting of what went wrong in the financial crisis, author and former investment banker William Cohan says. “This secrecy is one more example of how the whole bailout has been done in such a slithering manner,” says Cohan, who wrote “House of Cards” (Doubleday, 2009), about the unraveling of Bear Stearns Cos. “There’s been no accountability.”
CDOs Identified
The document Issa made public cuts to the heart of the controversy over the September 2008 AIG rescue by identifying specific securities, known as collateralized-debt obligations, that had been insured with the company. The banks holding the credit-default swaps, a type of derivative, collected collateral as the insurer was downgraded and the CDOs tumbled in value.
The public can now see for the first time how poorly the securities performed, with losses exceeding 75 percent of their notional value in some cases. Compounding this, the document and Bloomberg data demonstrate that the banks that bought the swaps from AIG are mostly the same firms that underwrote the CDOs in the first place.
The banks should have to explain how they managed to buy protection from AIG primarily on securities that fell so sharply in value, says Daniel Calacci, a former swaps trader and marketer who’s now a structured-finance consultant in Warren, New Jersey. In some cases, banks also owned mortgage lenders, and they should be challenged to explain whether they gained any insider knowledge about the quality of the loans bundled into the CDOs, he says.
‘Too Uncanny’
“It’s almost too uncanny,” Calacci says. “If these banks had insight into the underlying loans because they had relationships with banks, originators or servicers, that’s at the least unethical.”
The identification of securities in the document, known as Schedule A, and data compiled by Bloomberg show that Goldman Sachs underwrote $17.2 billion of the $62.1 billion in CDOs that AIG insured -- more than any other investment bank. Merrill Lynch & Co., now part of Bank of America Corp., created $13.2 billion of the CDOs, and Deutsche Bank AG underwrote $9.5 billion.
These tallies suggest a possible reason why the New York Fed kept so much under wraps, Professor James Cox of Duke University School of Law says: “They may have been trying to shield Goldman -- for Goldman’s sake or out of macro concerns that another investment bank would be at risk.”
Poor Performers
Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally declined to comment.
Schedule A also makes possible a more complete examination of why AIG collapsed. Joseph Cassano, the former president of the AIG Financial Products unit that sold the swaps, said on a December 2007 conference call that his firm pulled back from selling swaps on U.S. subprime residential CDOs in late 2005. The list shows that the $21.2 billion in CDOs minted after 2005, mostly based on prime and commercial mortgages, performed as badly as or worse than the earlier subprime vintages.
A lawyer for Cassano declined to comment.
As details of the coverup emerge, so does anger at the perceived conflicts.Philip Angelides, chairman of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, at a hearing held by his panel on Jan. 13, questioned how banks could underwrite poisonous securities and then bet against them. “It sounds to me a little bit like selling a car with faulty brakes and then buying an insurance policy on the buyer of those cars,” he said.
‘Part of the Coverup’
Janet Tavakoli, founder of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc., a Chicago-based consulting firm, says the New York Fed’s secrecy has helped hide who’s responsible for the worst of the disaster. “The suppression of the details in the list of counterparties was part of the coverup,” she says.
E-mails between Fed and AIG officials that Issa released in January show that the efforts to keep Schedule A under wraps came from the New York Fed. Revelation of the messages contributed to the heated atmosphere at the House hearing.
“What date did you know there was a coverup?” Republican CongressmanBrian Bilbray of California demanded of Geithner. Lawmakers used the word coverup more than a dozen times as they peppered Geithner with questions.
Geithner said that he wasn’t involved in matters of disclosure and that his former colleagues did the best they could. In a Jan. 19 statement, the New York Fed said, “AIG at all times remained responsible for complying with its disclosure requirements under the securities laws.”
The government has committed more than $182 billion to AIG and owns almost 80 percent of the company.
Document Withheld
In late November 2008, the insurer was planning to include Schedule A in a regulatory filing -- until a lawyer for the Fed said it wasn’t necessary, according to the e-mails. The document was an attachment to the agreement between AIG and Maiden Lane III, the fund that the Fed established in November 2008 to hold the CDOs after the swap contracts were settled.
AIG paid its counter parties -- the banks -- the full value of the contracts, after accounting for any collateral that had been posted, and took the devalued CDOs in exchange. As requested by the New York Fed, AIG kept the bank names out of the Dec. 24 filing and edited out a sentence that said they got full payment.
The New York Fed’s January 2010 statement said the sentence was deleted because AIG technically paid slightly less than 100 cents on the dollar.
Paid in Full
Before the New York Fed ordered AIG to pay the banks in full, the company was trying to negotiate to pay off the credit- default swaps at a discount or “haircut.”
By March 2009, responding to a request from Christopher Dodd, chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, AIG released the names of the counterparty banks. In a filing later that month, AIG included Schedule A, showing bank names while withholding all identification of the underlying CDOs and the amounts of collateral each bank had collected. The document had more than 800 redactions.
In May 2009, AIG again filed Schedule A, this time with about 400 redactions. It revealed that Paris-based Societe Generale got the biggest payout from AIG, or $16.5 billion, followed by Goldman Sachs, which got $14 billion, and then Deutsche Bank and Merrill Lynch. It still kept secret the CDOs’ identification and information that would show performance.
‘Right to Know’
“This is something that belongs in the public domain because it was done with public money,” Issa says. “The public has the right to know what was done with their money and who benefited from it.” Now, thanks to Issa, the list is out, and specific information about AIG’s unraveling can be learned from it.
At the Jan. 27 hearing, the New York Fed was still arguing that the contents of Schedule A shouldn’t be fully disclosed. Thomas Baxter, the New York Fed’s general counsel, testified that divulging the names of the CDOs could erode their value: “We will be hurt because traders in the market will know what we’re holding.”
Tavakoli calls that wrong. With many CDOs, providing more information to the market will give the manager a greater chance of fetching a realistic price, she says.
Jack Gutt, a spokesman for the New York Fed, declined to comment, as did AIG’s Mark Herr.
Bad to Worse
Tavakoli also says that the poor performance of the underlying securities (which are actually specific slices or tranches of CDOs) shows they were toxic in the first place and were probably replenished with bundles of mortgages that were particularly troubled. Managers who oversee CDOs after they are created have discretion in choosing the mortgage bonds used to replenish them.
“The original CDO deals were bad enough,” Tavakoli says. “For some that allow reinvesting or substitution, any reasonable professional would ask why these assets were being traded into the portfolio. The Schedule A shows that we should be investigating these deals.”
Among the CDOs on Schedule A with notional values of more than $1 billion, the worst performer was a tranche identified as Davis Square Funding Ltd.’s DVSQ 2006-6A CP. It was held by Societe Generale, underwritten by Goldman Sachs and managed by TCW Group Inc., a Los Angeles-based unit of SocGen, according to Bloomberg data. It lost 77.7 percent of its value -- though it isn’t in default and continues to pay.
SocGen spokesman James Galvin and TCW spokeswoman Erin Freemandeclined to comment.
Documentation Needed
Ed Grebeck, CEO of Tempus Advisors, a global debt market strategy firm in Stamford, Connecticut, agrees that more digging is necessary. “You need all the documentation and more than that, all the e-mails,” he says. “That would allow us to understand what went wrong and how to fix it going forward.”
Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, who delivered a report on the AIG bailout in November, says he’s not finished. He has begun a probe of why his office wasn’t provided all of the 250,000 pages of documents, including e-mails and phone logs, that Issa’s committee received from the New York Fed.
Schedule A provides some answers -- and raises questions that need to be tackled to avoid the next expensive bailout.
To contact the reporter on this story: Richard Teitelbaum in New York atrteitelbaum1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 23, 2010 00:01 EST
"

Monday, February 22, 2010

CLF - Cliffs Natural Resources

CLF has outperformed the markets as well as its sector and related companies such as X, AKS, RS, and MT to count a few. There is no real reason other than the high short interest which has been falling and the recent earnings announcement which was lackluster, but was not bad enough which resulted in a short squeeze. Now that is out of the way, it is time to short this stock again. Just in case markets rally due to complacency or some news about Greece, the better way of putting the trade on is through puts. I personally would start with the April 55s and add to the position or consider some other options depending on the stock action. You might lose money for a little while, but given this is a bubble go-go stock, odds are eventually you make money considering fundamentals are on your side and there are a lot of macro problems in the economy.