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Monday, March 1, 2010

CLF Up 50% In The Last Month And Market Action Looks Worrisome

This is the ultimate bubble stock. It is up 50% in the last month while its peers are either down or up slightly. This is complacency and bubble behavior at its peak reminding us a lot of 2007. This, too, will end in disaster. This stock is way overvalued and beyond a bubble at this point. Personally I am buying puts with this action. This is unsustainable. It might take a few months possibly, but when the move happens, it will be as huge if not bigger. In 2008-2009 stock went from $115 to $15. If anybody thinks this is a takeover target is dreaming. If in deed it gets taken over for some very silly reason, I would short the company taking it over, which can only be Rio Tinto or BHP. This is very doubtful by the way. This company is not worth this much and no sane person or company would buy the stock or the whole company at this valuation. Besides the earnings expectations on the company are beyond the realms of reality and even beyond dreaming.

The market action is quite worrisome in the face of terrible news. There is huge risk taking and gambling by money managers. Retail investors and retirees should not be gambling in situations like this. You do not want to face the next leg down, which could very well be the end of the dollar standard. The overall market is showing huge signs of complacency combined with manipulation through the futures as was evidenced last week with Goldman buying close to $10 billion of market futures in just a few minutes when the market was down close to 2% and looked sure to crash. These manipulations are unsustainable and will end up with Goldman losing its shirt one more time as happened in 2008-2009 -you all remember Global Alpha being down close to 50%- and the whole firm is still insolvent and even the Fed might not be strong enough to bail them out next time illegally as they did so far with all the attention given to the company and the Fed and their shady dealing all over the world and different markets they are legally not supposed to be involved in. I would be out of this market at this point. Personally, I started buying puts on single names and certain sectors such as the steels and financials and REITs, and finally retail.

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