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Thursday, November 18, 2010

Bubbles In The Clouds

This one is a very fitting name: Cloud computing. Because the valuations and expectations are above the clouds. These cloud computing companies such as RVBD, FFIV, NTAP, CTXS, AMZN to count a few are the new bubble industry as were the solar stocks back in 2007-2008. The expectations are beyond belief. The results surely will disappoint over the next couple years as more and more companies such as IBM and MSFT enter this market and competition increases. Even without competition the usefulness, efficiency, or more importantly the security of this concept is very doubtful. I'd recommend buying puts in the front 3-5 months that are 10-30% out of the money and keep doing this for the next couple years at the most. By then the clouds will turn into raindrops as will the investors' (and speculators') optimism into tears.

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