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Friday, July 30, 2010

Today's Stock Market Action

Bonds are ripping as yield tank. Equity markets did the right thing today early in the morning when they were tanking given all the terrible economic news, but then we saw some extreme futures buying that brought the market up on the day and any selling pressure has been met by these outsized futures buys that push the market back to the 1100 level. The most likely explanation is that today is the end of month and end of month options expiration so the S&P is getting pinned at 1100 level. Similarly there is window dressing by fund managers to make their month end look better especially if they missed most of the bounce-back rally. It does not matter however ridiculous and stupid that rally is.

This market is still more than 50% overvalued by any measure and the outlook for the economy looks terrible. You do not want to be long stocks except for defensive names such as utilities and some consumer staples. Even those are suspect when the crash comes, but holding some as a hedge against a currency/fiat money collapse is a smart idea. Of course you need to have gold in your portfolio and it has to be in the physical form. If after everything happens, you come up to me and tell me and say you have been saying this all along, but I didn't do it, I might headbutt you.

Enjoy the weekend.

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